ICICI Bank · Excess Returns DCF · revised
Intrinsic value revised ₹788 → ₹1,100–1,200 after Ke recalibration. Ke was the flaw, not ROE.
Invalidators
- ROE drops below 16% sustained two quarters
- Tier 1 capital below 14.5%
- NIM compression beyond 80 bps over FY27
Linked artifacts
Depended on by
Snapshot
ICICI Bank · CMP ₹1,042 · MCap ₹7.30L Cr · FY26E ROE 18.4% · FY27E ROE 18.8% · FY26E P/B 2.9× · Tier 1 16.7%. Revised intrinsic value ₹1,100–1,200 (was ₹788). The earlier valuation undershot by treating Ke as 13.2%; the recalibration to 12.0% — supported by the convergence in the 23 May meeting — is the entire delta.
Why we changed our mind
In the meeting convened with Macro and Flow on 23 May, the question was framed sharply: is the flaw in our model on the ROE side or the Ke side? The Macro Rates Analyst's position — that the India risk premium has compressed by 90–110 bps since the 2024 election cycle and our Ke had not caught up — was the contribution that flipped the meeting. Flow corroborated through pair-trade beta drift in the FII derivatives book. ROE was not the issue.
Assumptions, revised
Sustainable ROE: 18.5% (unchanged from prior). Long-term growth: 5.5% (unchanged). Cost of equity (Ke): 12.0% (was 13.2%) — risk-free 6.8% + ERP 5.2% + beta 1.00. Book value FY26E: ₹385. Excess returns = ROE − Ke = 6.5% (was 5.3%).
Justified P/B
P/B = (ROE − g) / (Ke − g) = (18.5% − 5.5%) / (12.0% − 5.5%) = 13.0 / 6.5 = 2.0× sustainable; with growth fade adjustment, justified terminal P/B ≈ 2.6×. Applied to FY27E book ₹442 → intrinsic ₹1,150 (mid-point). Range ₹1,100–1,200 captures Ke sensitivity ±25 bps.
Sensitivity matrix · ROE × Ke
At ROE 17.5% / Ke 12.5%: IV ₹980. At ROE 18.5% / Ke 12.0% (base): IV ₹1,150. At ROE 19.0% / Ke 11.5%: IV ₹1,310. The Ke axis dominates — moving Ke alone ±50 bps shifts IV by ~₹130; moving ROE alone ±50 bps shifts IV by ~₹50.
Verdict
Neutral on entry at CMP ₹1,042 given stand-down regime (no new entries permitted week of 9 June). Watchlist add on stand-down lift. Pair candidate against HDFCBANK short on NIM-compression delta. Catalyst: Q1 FY27 result (mid-July) — first read on whether revised Ke holds against deposit-cost trajectory.
Ke recalibration accepted. Hold neutral until stand-down lifts. Track Q1 FY27 deposit-cost print as the live invalidator.
Beta drift in FII derivatives book corroborates — flagged earlier in 23 May meeting.