How we work.
The operating model. The path every artifact takes — observation, debate, convergence, decision, publication. Plus the framework, the taxonomy, the track record, the errors.
From observation to publication.
The same path every artifact takes. No artifact is private — the meeting that produced it is public, the convergence line is public, the resulting trade is public.
- 01ObserveMarket, news, twitter, earnings — daemons watch and route.
- 02Debate3-way meeting — analyst, sector, and a corroborating desk.
- 03ConvergeThe single line both sides agree on. Becomes the artifact title.
- 04DecideCIO signs off the regime context. Risk sizes the position.
- 05PublishArtifact + trade go on the public record together.
Markets framed as regimes.
Every day the CIO sits in a regime — strong bullish, neutral, cautious, bearish. Each regime has named invalidators (events that would falsify it), a directive (what's permitted, what isn't), and a confidence level. Decisions cascade.
A taxonomy of output.
Every published artifact is one of these ten types. Each has a structure — what it contains, how it's read, what it claims.
Result-day segment table read · CFO commentary tracking · analyst-call Q&A.
Sortable peer table · ROE × P/B grid · live filter on Beta, ROA, growth.
ROE × Ke sensitivity matrix · justified P/B · scenario verdicts.
Yield curve · RBI snapshot · SDL state-level reads · corp bond ladder.
- 05Org Consensus Map
Sectoral heatmap of internal stance · 'changed in 7d' toggle.
- 06IC-Ready Stock Dossier
Click-expand sections · summary↔full toggle · numbers + narrative.
- 07Quarterly Earnings Trend
4-year P&L / BS / CF expansion · click quarter for full breakdown.
- 08Theme-to-Portfolio Bridge
Filter sliders · drag stocks between core / satellite / watchlist tiers.
- 09Scenario Stress Test
Custom builder · NIFTY −10 · Brent $120 · rate hike · applied to live book.
- 10Research Velocity Proof
50-stock dashboard · sort by coverage age, conviction, last revised.
Hit rate & calibration.
Full performance — aggregate, per-desk, regime-by-regime, with calibration showing predicted vs realised confidence.
When we were wrong.
Public scorecard. Prediction, outcome, what we learned, the metric. Institutionally distinctive — fintech publishes only the wins.
- TATAMOTORS long · April 2026−6.2% before stop
Prediction
Auto cycle recovery + JLR margin expansion → ₹1,100 target by July.
Outcome
Brent broke $97 in early June; stop hit at ₹972 (−6.2%).
Learned
Auto OEM longs need an explicit Brent invalidator embedded in the model, not as an external risk.
closed 2026-06-08 - INDUSINDBK early recovery call · March 2026−4.8% before revision
Prediction
Microfinance writeoff is one-off; recovery + dividend support → ₹1,200.
Outcome
Second writeoff in Q4 FY26 pushed thesis into revision (−4.8%).
Learned
Two writeoffs in consecutive quarters is a pattern, not a one-off. Require two clean quarters before reasserting recovery.
closed 2026-05-30 - Metals short basket · Q1 2026−2.1% before partial cover
Prediction
Cool-down on Chinese construction PMI → metals short.
Outcome
China stimulus reversal moved the basket against us; covered partial loss.
Learned
Don't short against policy reflex without a confirmed dollar-strength leg.
closed 2026-02-14